Pricing trends Snapshot as of February 8, 2007
You may have heard it said we’re in a ‘Normalizing’ Pricing trends. What does that mean? A study of the performance statistics for Inventory of Homes for Sale as they relate to Homes Sold over the past 20 months shows several things clearly.
Real Estate Markets are ever changing. Changes from Buyer’s to Seller’s markets are measured 2 ways: 1: ratio of homes for sale to sold 2: # of months supply available for sale. Changes or shifts typically happen over time so it’s important we look at small trends up or down and 2-3 month averages are helpful, particularly due to the nature of our industry. Remember, homes sales contracts take place in one month and don’t officially become home sales for several months later. Normalizing markets indicate we are performing in the wider middle between the Buyer and Seller Markets.
3rd quarter ’06 sales performance up over ’05:
I’ll begin with most recent performance. November ’06 was very strong with 27 homes sold and December and January ’07 followed with 19 and 18 respectively. These numbers are higher than many of the lowest performers over the past 20 months. In my tracking over 22 years in this Pricing trends area, May/June and November/December have always had the highest number of closed sales for the year. For that reason, our November ’06 sales performance shows we’re in a Normalizing Pricing trends. With 64 units in Nov/Dec/Jan 06, we out perform the 56 units for the same period for 2005.
50% Fewer homes for sale:
We see a 50% reduction in Homes for sale over six (6) months from June ’06 –Dec ’06. This was the result of 3 things:
1. Sellers and agents did reality checks and low motivation sellers came off the Pricing trends.
2. Other Sellers held through the normalizing Pricing trends adjustments and the reduction in inventory from November to December 2006 can be largely attributed to sales and not ‘off Pricing trends’ listings.
3. Last Quarter showed good sales performance with motivated buyers and sellers making deals happen with the advice and assistance of realistic real estate agents.
With 118 homes for sale, we are at a more typical inventory level of a Normalizing Pricing trends. The goal is a more ‘normal’ relationship between the Homes for Sale and Homes Sold numbers. The graph shows that there is normally a fairly wide gap between the two but when one number out paces quickly and repeatedly, we move to a buyer’s or seller’s Pricing trends. If the goal is for 25% of the homes to sell, we need a 4:1 ratio. So there is still room for improvement on the homes sales side, providing inventory remains fairly steady and doesn’t trend up over time.
15% of homes for sale are becoming homes sold:
Gap between For Sale and Sold tracking: Only about 20-25% of the homes for sale actually sell in a ‘normal’ Pricing trends, although you may perceive that to be a low number. In a seller’s Pricing trends, that number nears 50%, while in a buyers Pricing trends, it’s closer to 10%.